--- sourceDocument: Australia Governance, Risk, and Compliance sourceDocumentLink: https://servicenow-prod.fluidtopics.net/r/governance-risk-compliance Release : - australia ft:locale : - en-US ft:publication_title : - Australia Governance, Risk, and Compliance ft:clusterId : - grc bundleId : - grc workflow : - Technology --- # Scenario analysis # Scenario analysis {#ariaid-title1} * Release version: Australia * * Updated May 28, 2026 * * ![](https://www.servicenow.com/docs/portal-asset/ico-clock) 2 minutes to read Summarize ![AI sparkle icon](https://servicenow.com/docs/portal-asset/ai-sparkle-icon) Summarized using AI This content was generated using new OpenAI-powered functionality. Results are provided on an as is basis and are not guaranteed to be accurate or complete. ## Summary of Scenario analysis Scenario analysis in ServiceNow's Operational Resilience (version 22.3.1 and later) enables customers to evaluate how critical business services perform under adverse conditions. It assesses potential impacts on services and their dependencies, helping to identify operational vulnerabilities and make informed treatment decisions. The advanced scenario analysis replaces the legacy flow with a guided, simulation-based approach that provides deeper insights and improved usability. Show full answer Show less ## Key Features * **Advanced Scenario Analysis with Simulation:** Uses Monte Carlo statistical modeling within the Operational Resilience Workspace to simulate financial impacts and quantify risk exposure more accurately than manual methods. * **Guided Playbook Experience:** A structured, data-driven playbook guides analysts step-by-step from defining scope through to treatment decision, overcoming the complexity and fragmentation of the legacy process. * **Data-Driven Financial Impact Analysis:** Employs an Annual Loss Model and historical risk-event data to calculate probable financial losses and breach probabilities for service loss tolerance. * **Statistical Model Profile:** Maps complex mathematical parameters to understandable assessment questions, enhancing analyst interaction with the simulation engine. ## Practical Considerations * The advanced scenario analysis requires the IRM Advanced license. * Smart Assessment Engine templates must be created and published to support the simulation method. * Each scenario analysis record can only scope a single critical business service at a time. * The roles of owner and assessor must be assigned to the same person. * The Monte Carlo model's configuration is fixed; users cannot customize distribution types or add other models. * Only risk events are supported as reference data inputs for the simulation. ## Workflow and States Scenario analysis records begin in the Draft state and move to Completed once the analysis is finalized, at which point they become read-only. ## Legacy Scenario Analysis The legacy scenario analysis flow is still available but disabled by default. It involved manual, fragmented steps and provided limited output. Customers can switch to the legacy flow if needed, but the advanced simulation-based analysis is recommended for improved accuracy and usability. Conduct a scenario analysis to assess how a critical service performs under adverse conditions. Starting with Operational Resilience, version 22.3.1, you can use advanced scenario analysis with simulation in the Operational Resilience Workspace. Apply statistical modelling to quantify financial impact and record a treatment decision. ## What is a scenario analysis {#scenario-analysis-ov__section_ov_what} A scenario analysis evaluates the impact of adverse-event scenarios on the services that support your business. You run scenarios against a service and its dependencies. You can then use the results to make a treatment decision and log operational vulnerabilities or issues. Releases before Operational Resilience, version 22.3.1 supported the legacy scenario analysis flow, which had the following limitations: 1. Complex navigation --- Steps opened simultaneously as tabs with no guided sequence, making it difficult for analysts to track progress or determine next steps. 2. Limited output --- The result was a "Breached/Not breached" outcome with minimal contextual data, providing little actionable insight. 3. Manual, repetitive effort --- Analysts manually answered each question for every scenario event, with no data-driven assistance to populate or guide responses. {#scenario-analysis-ov__ol_zwb_mwf_kjc} ## Benefits of using simulation and the guided experience {#scenario-analysis-ov__section_ov_flows} Starting with Operational Resilience, version 22.3.1, the advanced scenario analysis with the Playbook experience offers the following benefits: 1. Structured Playbook guidance: Replaces the fragmented, manually driven legacy process with a structured, data-driven Playbook that guides analysts from scope definition to treatment decision. 2. Monte Carlo statistical modelling: Quantifies financial risk exposure through simulated annual loss projections, providing more accurate and reliable risk assessments than manual methods. 3. Data-driven financial impact analysis: Uses an Annual Loss Model and historical risk-event reference data to produce a quantified financial impact and calculate the probability of breaching a service's loss tolerance. {#scenario-analysis-ov__ol_v34_sky_ljc} ## Statistical model profile {#scenario-analysis-ov__section_i4t_gxr_ljc} When you create a scenario analysis record, select Statistical Modelling --- used for advanced scenario analysis --- or Manual in the Method field. The Statistical model profile bridges the simulation engine and the analyst experience by mapping mathematical parameters to plain-language assessment questions. Note: The Statistical Modelling method of scenario analysis is only available with the IRM Advanced license. The base configuration includes an annual loss model driven by risk events, which references input and output templates managed through the Smart Assessment Engine (SAE). Before selecting a method, verify with your administrator that Smart Assessment templates have been created and published in the Assessment Workspace. Use the purpose Scenario Analysis (advanced) or Scenario Analysis - Manual. For more information, see the following topics: * [Verify the Smart Assessment templates setup](https://servicenow-prod.fluidtopics.net/UT8iV4poa2rLE4WBdyERFQ "Verify that the input and output Smart Assessment templates are set up and published in the Assessment Workspace before running an advanced scenario analysis. The Statistical model profile in the advanced scenario analysis uses these templates to present plain-language questions and display simulation results.") * [Create a scenario analysis record using simulation](https://servicenow-prod.fluidtopics.net/2YlsmWkG2onFdXpLLsAAcA "Create a Scenario analysis record to assess how a critical service performs under adverse conditions using statistical modelling. Use the guided Playbook experience to move through scoping, scenario selection, simulation, results review, and treatment decision.") * [Building a scenario analysis using simulation](https://servicenow-prod.fluidtopics.net/kJro5WsfRSpWLFzuKJmUIQ "Use the scenario analysis process to assess how critical services perform under adverse conditions using statistical simulation. Starting with Operational Resilience, version 22.3.1, Operational Resilience application, you can follow a guided playbook to perform a scenario analysis.") {#scenario-analysis-ov__ul_qvy_spy_ljc} ## States for the analysis {#scenario-analysis-ov__section_ov_complete_lock} A scenario analysis record moves through different states. A newly created record starts in the Draft state. When you select Complete analysis and confirm the prompt, the record moves to Completed and becomes read-only. ## Known limitations {#scenario-analysis-ov__section_ov_limitations} The following limitations apply to the advanced scenario analysis: * Owner and assessor roles --- The owner and assessor must be the same person. * Single service per analysis --- Only one critical business service can be scoped per scenario analysis record. * Model capabilities --- The Monte Carlo model is tightly coupled to the configuration. You cannot swap distribution types (for example, triangular or normal) or introduce custom models. * Reference data --- Only risk events are supported as reference data inputs. {#scenario-analysis-ov__ul_sca_ov_limitations} ## Legacy scenario analysis {#scenario-analysis-ov__section_erd_5rr_ljc} The advanced scenario analysis is enabled by default. For an overview of the legacy experience, see [Legacy scenario analysis](https://servicenow-prod.fluidtopics.net/8mcW~3K7_11nq~yH_i5yPA "By performing a scenario analysis, you can determine the risks that might impact your business. You can analyze the impact of the scenarios and events on your business services. You can also track the actions and improvements from the scenario analysis in Operational Resilience Workspace."). To switch to the legacy flow, see [Enable the legacy scenario analysis flow](https://servicenow-prod.fluidtopics.net/yvBrEPTP~EKtzKlQwvBXsA "Complete admin procedure to activate the legacy scenario analysis flow (sn_oper_res_scenario_analysis) across the four entry-point surfaces in the Operational Resilience Workspace. Deactivate the advanced flow when you want to continue using the legacy scenario analysis flow.").