Run a scenario analysis using the manual method

Release version: Australia

Updated May 31, 2026

3 minutes to read

Run a scenario analysis on subject-matter-expert (SME) judgment instead of statistical simulation. The manual method reuses the guided playbook but omits the Reference Data step and the quantitative Results step.

Before you begin

Role required: sn_oper_res.admin, sn_oper_res.manager

About this task

Use the manual method when a quantitative financial-loss projection is not required and an SME records the impact of a scenario qualitatively. When you set the Method field to Manual, the analysis uses an SME assessment template instead of a statistical simulation. The Scope, Scenarios, Treatment Decision, Operational Vulnerabilities, and Issues steps are the same as in the statistical modelling flow. The method is a choice you make on the Details tab when you create the scenario analysis record; it is not an extra step in the flow. Choose Statistical Modelling or Manual based on your requirement. For the statistical modelling flow, see Start simulation and run scenario testing.

Note:

The manual method omits the Reference Data step and the quantitative Results step. Because the answers are entered manually and no simulation runs, the manual method does not produce calculated financial-loss metrics. For an overview of both methods, see Scenario analysis.

Procedure

Navigate to All > Operational Resilience > Scenario Analysis and create a scenario analysis record.
On the Details tab, enter a Name, Description, and Goal for the analysis.
Set the Method field to Manual.

When you select the manual method, the base system Scenario analysis manual template is populated as the assessment template. You can select your own published template instead.
Select Save.
The record is saved and the playbook experience opens at the Scope step.
On the Scope step, add the critical business service to analyze, and then select Mark as complete.

Note:
Only one service can be added per scenario analysis in this release. After you mark the step complete, the scope is locked.
On the Dependencies step, add the dependencies to include, and then select Mark as complete.

You can add dependencies that are related to the service in scope, or add other dependencies that are not in scope. After you mark the step complete, the selected dependencies cannot be changed.
On the Scenarios step, add one or more scenarios to test, and then select Mark as complete.

Note:
The manual method does not include a Reference Data step. After you complete the Scenarios step, the playbook moves directly to Scenario Testing.
On the Scenario Testing step, open the manual assessment template and answer the questions.
The base system Scenario analysis manual template groups its questions into the following sections:
- Services and Dependencies — Service impact and criticality, and dependencies and infrastructure, including single points of failure.
- Preparedness & Response — Whether defined rules, backups, and remote-working capabilities exist.
- Impact Analysis — Financial, transaction, customer, duration, and reputational impact.
- Business Continuity and Disaster Recovery — Continuity and recovery readiness. These questions apply when the BCM workspace is added.
Select Submit, and then select Mark as complete on the Scenario Testing step.

Note:
No simulation runs for the manual method, and no quantitative Results step is presented. The playbook moves directly to Treatment Decision.
On the Treatment Decision step, select a risk response, enter the mandatory reason, and then select Mark as complete.

Select a response of Accept, Mitigate, Avoid, or Transfer. A reason is required before you can complete the step.
Optional: Log any operational vulnerabilities and issues that are identified during the analysis.

On the Operational Vulnerabilities and Issues steps, create the records you want to associate with the analysis, or skip the steps. These steps remain editable until you complete the analysis.

Note:
Skipping the optional step does not affect the analysis completion.
Select Complete analysis, and then confirm.
The record moves to the Completed state and the whole record becomes read-only.

Result

The scenario analysis is complete and recorded with the SME assessment and treatment decision. Because the manual method does not run a simulation, the analysis does not include calculated financial-loss metrics. For information about the statistical modelling method, see Start simulation and run scenario testing.