Create a scenario analysis record using simulation

Release version: Australia

Updated March 12, 2026

2 minutes to read

Create a Scenario analysis record to assess how a critical service performs under adverse conditions using statistical modelling. Use the guided Playbook experience to move through scoping, scenario selection, simulation, results review, and treatment decision.

Before you begin

Role required: sn_oper_res.admin, sn_oper_res.manager

About this task

Users with the sn_oper_res.user role can view records and playbook stages in read-only mode. To create, edit, or progress an analysis, the sn_oper_res.manager or sn_oper_res.admin role is required. Scenario analysis runs only in Operational Resilience Workspace via the Playbook tab; there is no alternative form-based flow.

Procedure

Navigate to All > Operational Resilience > Scenario Analysis and open the Scenario Analysis record form.
The Scenario Analyses list view in the Operational Resilience Workspace shows records in every state, including Draft and Completed. Default columns are Number, Name, Priority, State, and Owner. Select a record number (for example, SA0001038) to open the record detail.
To create a scenario analysis record, select New.
The Scenario Analysis form is displayed. You can fill in the form and create a Scenario Analysis record. For more information on the form, see Create a scenario analysis record using simulation.
Enter the name of the scenario analysis record in the Name field.
Enter a description of the scenario context in the Description field.
Enter a Goal statement that describes what the analysis aims to confirm.
Assign an Owner for the scenario analysis.

The creator of the scenario analysis is assigned as its owner. The form is shown in the example.
Set the required Method field to one of the two available options.
- Statistical Modelling — Uses models and historical data to estimate outcome probabilities.
  Note:
  The Statistical Modelling method of scenario analysis is only available with the IRM Advanced license.
- Manual — Uses an SME-driven assessment template without simulation.
Note:
The Method field defines which of the two scenario analysis flows you use; it is a choice, not an optional step. Select Statistical Modelling for a Monte Carlo simulation, or Manual for a qualitative SME assessment.

When you choose Manual, the Statistical model profile field is hidden, the playbook omits the Reference Data and Results steps, and the Scenario Testing step uses an SME-driven assessment template instead of a simulation. All other playbook steps are identical.

Statistical Modelling is selected by default.

Steps for using the simulation method are described in Start simulation and run scenario testing. The manual method is described in Run a scenario analysis using the manual method.
Verify that the Annual loss model driven by risk events is shown in the Statistical model profile field.

The Statistical model profile is set by Operational Resilience and it controls how the simulation runs. It links an Annual loss model to the assessment question templates used to collect input parameters. One profile ships with the base system: Annual loss model driven by risk events. The profile links a risk-event reference table to the input and output assessment templates that the simulation uses.

Note:
The Statistical model profile field is a reference picker, not a drop-down. Only one profile can be selected per analysis.
Select Save.
The record is created in the Draft state and the selections are displayed in the Details tab.
Select the Playbook tab to begin the guided analysis.

Result

The scenario analysis record is created and the Playbook tab is available to begin the guided analysis.

What to do next

For defining the scope of scenario analysis, see Define the scope and dependencies.